ND K-12 Teacher Retention Study

Abstract

This analysis will study the trend of teacher retention over time in North Dakota, how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected it, and the connection between teacher pay and teacher retention.

Executive Summary

Teacher retention in North Dakota has declined significantly over the past two decades. Using data from the North Dakota Statewide Longitudinal Data System (SLDS), this study finds that the median years of experience for teachers leaving the profession fell from 23 years in 2006–07 to just 8 years in 2024–25. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this decline, most notably among mid-career teachers aged 30–45, a group that had historically shown strong retention. Analysis of wage data for 706 departing teachers further reveals that, on average, teachers who left the profession between 2014–15 and 2023–24 earned approximately $3,772 less in their first year after leaving than in their last year of teaching. This suggests that financial incentives alone do not fully explain teacher attrition in North Dakota, and that other contributing factors warrant further investigation.

Introduction and description of data

The purpose of this study is to illustrate the trend of teacher retention patterns in North Dakota over the lifetime of the data in the North Dakota Statewide Longitudinal Data System (SLDS). Additionally, teacher pay prior to and following departure from the teaching field will be compared to help provide information regarding whether or not teachers may be leaving the field for financial reasons.

To complete this study, data housed in the SLDS from multiple sources was utilized, including data from:

• North Dakota Department of Public Instruction (DPI)
• North Dakota Education Standards and Practices Board (ESPB)
• North Dakota Job Service

What is the median experience level for teachers leaving the profession?

To begin, we will look at the median years of experience for teachers leaving the profession. They could be leaving for any reason; retirement, illness, childbirth, etc. To be considered “not returned”, the teacher has appeared as an instructor in a North Dakota school at some point in the years 2006-07 to 2024-25. The point at which they are no longer shown as a teacher or administrator in a North Dakota school, they are considered to have “not returned”.

Figure 1 below shows that from the 2006-07 to the 2024-25 school year, the median years of experience until leaving the profession has been steadily decreasing. In 2006-07, half of teachers leaving the profession had 23 years of experience or less. By 2024-25, half of teachers leaving the profession had 8 years of experience or less.

Figure 1: Median years of experience for teachers not returning and/or retiring, 2006-07 through 2024-25 school years

There appears to be little geographical component to this decrease in teacher retention over the past sixteen years. Figure 2 below shows the median years of experience for departing teachers by school district area from the 2006-07 to 2024-25 school years. While the northwest corner of the state appeared to have a faster fall (appearing to be associated with the initial years of large scale oilfield activity), every area of the state experienced large decreases in the median years of experience teachers leaving the field. This indicates that each region of the state is experiencing teachers leaving the field after fewer years than in the past.

The dashed line represents the spring of 2020. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the areas outside the northwest corner of the state experienced a sharper downturn in the median years of experience for departing teachers, while the northwest corner of the state experienced a leveling off in the median years of experience for departing teachers.

Figure 3 further shows the increase in teachers leaving the profession early. It shows the median years of experience for departing teachers by school district from the 2007-2011 and 2021-2025 school years. The size of the points represents the number of teachers departing the profession in that district, and the color represents the median years of experience for those departing teachers.

Figure 2: Median years of experience for teachers departing the profession by school district area, 2006-07 to 2024-25 school years

Figure 3: Median years of experience for teachers departing the profession by school district, 2007-2011 and 2021-2025 school years

What is the distribution of ages for teachers leaving the profession?

Seeing that there has been a change in the median years of experience over the last sixteen years in North Dakota, the next question to be investigated involved the ages of those teachers leaving the profession. Particularly, it was of interest to see if there was a change in the age distribution of those teachers that chose to leave teaching.

Figure 4 below shows three groups of years with departing teachers, each with four years of data included in them. The percent of departing teachers in each age group is shown. All three groups of years show a sizable number of departing teachers are either of retirement age or very new teachers deciding to leave the profession. What is of note is the group of individuals from age 30-45. The first two year groups, 2007-10 and 2014-17, show that if newer teachers made it past the first few difficult years of teaching, 30-45 year olds were not terribly likely to leave teaching. However, in the 2022-25 group, a larger percentage of departing teachers were made up of these 30-45 year olds.

Figure 4: Distribution of ages for teachers who do not return

Across all years, there have always been teachers who leave the profession early (deciding teaching is not for them) and teachers who leave the profession late (retiring). What has changed over time is the number of teachers in the 30-45 year old range; historically, this age group did not leave the profession often, often settling in to the middle of their career. However, the percentage of teachers departing the profession in the 30-45 year old range has increased over time, and particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 5 below shows the percentage of departing teachers who fell in the 30-45 year old range by school year. The dashed line represents the spring of 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic, after which this age group started to make up progressively more of the proportion of teachers departing the profession.

Figure 5: Percent of departing teachers aged 30-45 by school year

What percent of teachers leave teaching by age group?

While the previous section showed the distribution of ages for teachers that were leaving, it is also of interest to see what percentage of teachers leave for each age group. What age group showed the most propensity for leaving teaching, and is this changing over time? Figure 6 below shows the percentage of teachers leaving by school year, grouped by the teacher’s age. Not surprisingly, teachers in their 20s (new teachers) and 60s (retiring teachers) were the most common to leave teaching.

However, something of note that appeared in this figure is the upward swing experienced by all age groups (except for teachers in their 50s and 60s) following the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020. Also of note is the general upward trend, even prior to the pandemic, across all age groups (again, particularly younger groups), indicating an increase in teacher departures over time.

Figure 6: Percentage of teachers leaving teaching by age group and school year

Do different subject areas experience differences in teacher retention rates over time?

Previous sections have established that teacher retention is an increasing difficulty, and is showing different characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, have subject areas experienced this differently over time? Are some subject areas more prone to loss of teachers? Figure 7 below shows the variety in trends among the various subject areas for teachers. Each of the areas show a unique trend; areas such as Business, Science, and Agriculture Education have shown a noticeable increase following the COVID-19 pandemic, while other areas such as Music and Mathematics have continued a slow increase in teacher departures over time, regardless of the pandemic.

Figure 7: Percentage of teachers leaving teaching by subject area and school year

Are teachers leaving the profession making more after leaving teaching?

Finally, now that the trend of teacher retention has been illustrated, the question of teacher pay was studied. Particularly, “Do teachers make more money after leaving teaching?”. To study this, wages for departing teachers who had four quarters of wages in their last year of teaching (July - June) were compared to their wages for the following year (again, July - June).

Only teachers who had wages that were reported to Unemployment Insurance were included; no self-employed individuals would be included. Additionally, individuals were only considered for comparison if they earned the equivalent of a full-time employment at minimum wage ($15,080/yr). This was done to eliminate teachers who may have left teaching to raise a family or other situations where an individual may decide not to work. Also, to eliminate consideration of individuals leaving teaching to retire, only teachers under the age of 50 had their wages investigated.

Following the application of the conditions, 706 teachers were left under consideration who left teaching between 2014-15 and 2023-24. 2014-15 was used as the start of wage comparisons, as that is the beginning of continuous UI wage data within the SLDS. Figure 8 below shows the distribution of the differences between a departing teachers new wage the year after leaving teaching and their old wage during their last year of teaching. (Note their old wages also includes any additional employment in addition to their teaching salary)

Figure 8 shows that the median wage change for these 706 teachers was a loss of $3,772 compared with their income during their last year of teaching. This would suggest that while some teachers certainly do make more money in their first year of employment following teaching, this is by no means a universal trend. Indeed, more of the teachers in this study (421) took a pay cut than increased their wages (285).

Figure 8: Median wage change for teachers leaving the profession during school years 2014-15 to 2023-24

Summary

The data from the North Dakota Statewide Longitudinal Data System offered a detailed look at teacher retention trends across the state. Over the past two decades, the median years of experience for teachers leaving the profession has declined steadily, falling from 23 years in 2006–07 to 8 years in 2024–25. This pattern was observed across all regions of the state, with no single area standing out as an exception.

Historically, teachers left the profession at one of two points; very early in their career, perhaps determining teaching is not for them, and very late in their career, likely retiring. This trend has changed, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, with a noticeable increase in the share of departing teachers in the 30–45 age group. This is a significant shift, as this age group had previously been among the most stable in terms of retention.

On the question of compensation, wage data for 706 departing teachers between 2014–15 and 2023–24 showed that the median teacher earned approximately $3,772 less in their first year after leaving than during their final year of teaching. More departing teachers experienced a wage decrease (421) than an increase (285). This does not rule out compensation as a contributing factor in retention — salary competitiveness, benefits, and long-term earning potential all matter — but it does suggest that teachers are not, on average, leaving for the immediate promise of a larger paycheck.

These findings provide a data-driven overview of teacher retention in North Dakota and may serve as a useful foundation for further research and policy discussion.